singhsa3
04-30 05:11 PM
All,
I am planning to write a letter to USCIS and DOS , suggesting the visa cut off dates for India. Kindly help me develop a model. I will send this letter over the weekend and also post over here.
So far I have the following rational (Of course , I will word them properly).
I have grouped applicants in the following groups
BEC, PERM ROW and PERM Non Row Countries. I then will estimate the visa usage by each categories using sources like FLCdata and DHS publications. Along the way I will make some assumption but the results should be realistic.
Facts
1. Per DOL , As of April'06 50K BEC labors were certified. Certification rates were 50% of labor processed (certified, denied or withdrawn).
Per DOL, as of Sep'07 362,000 BEC labor were processed (certified, denied or withdrawn).
2. Per DHS, total EB (2, 3, 4 and 5 only) visas issued in FY’07 were 135,479 and FY’06 was 122,121.
3. FLC data center indicates that between March’05 and Oct’05, ~6000 PERM applications were filled and certified.
4. Per FLC data, 46,340 ROW PERM applications were certified in FY’06 and 47,251 ROW applications were certified in FY’07.
Assumptions
1. Each labor application uses in 2.2 visas.
2. Based on Fact 1 and Fact 2, let us assumed that in total 180,000 BEC labors were certified between March'05 and Sep'07 by BEC.
3. Total BEC visas requirements 180,000*2.2= 396,000
4. NIW applications are negligible.
5. Retrogressed countries account for 50% of visas used.
Calculations
Scenario 1: Visa processing time is Zero
1. BEC visas used in Fy'06 : = 122,121- (46,340)x 2.2 = 20173
2. BEC visas issued in FY'07 : 135,459-(47,251+6000)x2.2=18,306
3. BEC visas remaining as on 10/01/08= 396,000-20,173-18,306= 357,521
Scenario 2: Visa processing time is one year. Note: it affects only the applications certified within the preceding year.
1. BEC visas used in Fy'06 : = 122,121- (46,340)x 2.2 = 20,173
2. BEC visas issued in FY'07 : 135,459-(6000)x2.2=122,259
3. BEC visas (And NOT labor) remaining as on 10/01/08 = 396,000-122,259= 273,741.
What it means:
BEC contained labors from both retrogressed and non-retrogressed countries. Thus, in FY’08 and FY’09 visa consumptions will be attributed to BEC mainly. Once this backlog is cleared, the normal consumption (Supply = Demand) should resume. But it will also mean that there will always be 2-3 years wait.
Conclusion:
Suggested Cut-off dates for India as on 10/01/2008: ??? TBD.
Last update:
Time 11.32 AM ET , 05/01/08.
I am planning to write a letter to USCIS and DOS , suggesting the visa cut off dates for India. Kindly help me develop a model. I will send this letter over the weekend and also post over here.
So far I have the following rational (Of course , I will word them properly).
I have grouped applicants in the following groups
BEC, PERM ROW and PERM Non Row Countries. I then will estimate the visa usage by each categories using sources like FLCdata and DHS publications. Along the way I will make some assumption but the results should be realistic.
Facts
1. Per DOL , As of April'06 50K BEC labors were certified. Certification rates were 50% of labor processed (certified, denied or withdrawn).
Per DOL, as of Sep'07 362,000 BEC labor were processed (certified, denied or withdrawn).
2. Per DHS, total EB (2, 3, 4 and 5 only) visas issued in FY’07 were 135,479 and FY’06 was 122,121.
3. FLC data center indicates that between March’05 and Oct’05, ~6000 PERM applications were filled and certified.
4. Per FLC data, 46,340 ROW PERM applications were certified in FY’06 and 47,251 ROW applications were certified in FY’07.
Assumptions
1. Each labor application uses in 2.2 visas.
2. Based on Fact 1 and Fact 2, let us assumed that in total 180,000 BEC labors were certified between March'05 and Sep'07 by BEC.
3. Total BEC visas requirements 180,000*2.2= 396,000
4. NIW applications are negligible.
5. Retrogressed countries account for 50% of visas used.
Calculations
Scenario 1: Visa processing time is Zero
1. BEC visas used in Fy'06 : = 122,121- (46,340)x 2.2 = 20173
2. BEC visas issued in FY'07 : 135,459-(47,251+6000)x2.2=18,306
3. BEC visas remaining as on 10/01/08= 396,000-20,173-18,306= 357,521
Scenario 2: Visa processing time is one year. Note: it affects only the applications certified within the preceding year.
1. BEC visas used in Fy'06 : = 122,121- (46,340)x 2.2 = 20,173
2. BEC visas issued in FY'07 : 135,459-(6000)x2.2=122,259
3. BEC visas (And NOT labor) remaining as on 10/01/08 = 396,000-122,259= 273,741.
What it means:
BEC contained labors from both retrogressed and non-retrogressed countries. Thus, in FY’08 and FY’09 visa consumptions will be attributed to BEC mainly. Once this backlog is cleared, the normal consumption (Supply = Demand) should resume. But it will also mean that there will always be 2-3 years wait.
Conclusion:
Suggested Cut-off dates for India as on 10/01/2008: ??? TBD.
Last update:
Time 11.32 AM ET , 05/01/08.
wallpaper Justin Bieber: Never Say Never
raama123
02-25 11:22 PM
I was registered first time in last 6years this forum.i did not expect answers from this forum like arrogant,if you are not interested don't give reply like below,even you don't know about issue to answer,why you are giving unnecessary.
Forum will help to others with sharing the knowledge and sharing situations,not giving silly things..
Please remove this type of answers
dealsnet = which is correct
sargon = LoL. No wonder she got caught. She is not only a thief, she is also stupid
snthampi View Post
People like your (friend's) wife are a shame to the legal immigration community. We come here to work hard and make a better living. I don't think, this woman deserve to be admitted back to the US and I am not sorry to be rude in this case.
Please.... come on... you are a highly skilled immigrant... you can do better than this... I'm waiting... please spend the rest of the work day to come up with something.
Bookmark and Share
thanks
raam
Forum will help to others with sharing the knowledge and sharing situations,not giving silly things..
Please remove this type of answers
dealsnet = which is correct
sargon = LoL. No wonder she got caught. She is not only a thief, she is also stupid
snthampi View Post
People like your (friend's) wife are a shame to the legal immigration community. We come here to work hard and make a better living. I don't think, this woman deserve to be admitted back to the US and I am not sorry to be rude in this case.
Please.... come on... you are a highly skilled immigrant... you can do better than this... I'm waiting... please spend the rest of the work day to come up with something.
Bookmark and Share
thanks
raam
indianindian2006
06-14 02:17 PM
you can file for 485 and change employers later, I guess you should ask an attorney.
2011 Justin Bieber Never Say Never
jnayar2006
03-27 05:40 PM
nsnriv,
The idea of the IV forums is to discuss our agenda, and activities.
Individual cases and problems are best discussed on forums like Immigration Portal. You are sure to find help and advice there.
Good luck,
Berkeleybee
Berkeleybee, I am not sure I totally agree with you - having a forum where people can come in and ask questions related to the core problems is a great way to increase readership and to promote the necessary esprit de corps. The members-only forums - now those, I agree - mainly ideas, activities etc. (Personally, I find it very difficult to stay tuned to 3 or 4 different immigration web sites/forums).
vnsriniv, to answer your question - to the best of my knowledge, you will have to wait till the dates become current - the current processing dates of the service centers don't mean much - there are several cases of 485 approvals of petitions with PDs > cut-off dates based on other posts on this board.
The idea of the IV forums is to discuss our agenda, and activities.
Individual cases and problems are best discussed on forums like Immigration Portal. You are sure to find help and advice there.
Good luck,
Berkeleybee
Berkeleybee, I am not sure I totally agree with you - having a forum where people can come in and ask questions related to the core problems is a great way to increase readership and to promote the necessary esprit de corps. The members-only forums - now those, I agree - mainly ideas, activities etc. (Personally, I find it very difficult to stay tuned to 3 or 4 different immigration web sites/forums).
vnsriniv, to answer your question - to the best of my knowledge, you will have to wait till the dates become current - the current processing dates of the service centers don't mean much - there are several cases of 485 approvals of petitions with PDs > cut-off dates based on other posts on this board.
more...
EndlessWait
09-08 12:02 PM
so why complain.. ofcourse just kidding! , no pun intended
bodhi_tree
12-15 12:07 PM
he can get a 3 yr extension no matter what because I am assuming that he will go through PERM and have his I140 approved through the new company in a year or so.
the only benefit of the old I140 is to port the Priority Date.
Could you elaborate ? Did you mean I'll eventually get a 3 year extension after I run out of 6 year term (assuming the new company files perm and the retrogression is still there then..) OR did you mean I can get 3 years right now ?
the only benefit of the old I140 is to port the Priority Date.
Could you elaborate ? Did you mean I'll eventually get a 3 year extension after I run out of 6 year term (assuming the new company files perm and the retrogression is still there then..) OR did you mean I can get 3 years right now ?
more...
jlander
January 10th, 2005, 09:23 PM
I bought the new Sigma 105 ex dg lens from b&h and it shipped today. I just couldn't bring myself to pay so much for the Nikon when every review of the sigma that I read said it was just as good. I should get the lens on Wednesday.
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I bought a 4+ closup lens to put on the front so that I can get even greater magnification. Has anyone ever used them?<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
As far as expresscamera.com goes, I learned my lesson. I searched for �expresscamera complaints� AFTER I got off the phone. I can't believe I fell for the bait and switch. When I completed my online order, I got an email that I had to call to verify the order. When I did, the operator asked what camera I was using and then asked why I was buying a 35mm film lens for a digital camera.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
This caught me by surprise and also made me feel a bit stupid. I asked what the difference was and what he recommended. He then sent me to another page on his site that had the sigma lens for $850 on sale for $750. He then told me that there was a rebate for $150 and he could file it for me for a fee of $50. I told him that I'd file it myself and he offered to wave the $50 fee. He then said that shipping would take 2 weeks and when I balked, said that he would upgrade the shipping to 3 day. The standard shipping price was over $50 with insurance. My total price on the lens was just under $650. By that time, I would have paid anything.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
I searched their site and found the Sigma ex dg lens for sale elsewhere for $370. The search function on the site does not work correctly, so it was not easy. What a scam... They have their technique down to a science. I doubt that many people actually end up with what they originally ordered.
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
I bought a 4+ closup lens to put on the front so that I can get even greater magnification. Has anyone ever used them?<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
As far as expresscamera.com goes, I learned my lesson. I searched for �expresscamera complaints� AFTER I got off the phone. I can't believe I fell for the bait and switch. When I completed my online order, I got an email that I had to call to verify the order. When I did, the operator asked what camera I was using and then asked why I was buying a 35mm film lens for a digital camera.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
This caught me by surprise and also made me feel a bit stupid. I asked what the difference was and what he recommended. He then sent me to another page on his site that had the sigma lens for $850 on sale for $750. He then told me that there was a rebate for $150 and he could file it for me for a fee of $50. I told him that I'd file it myself and he offered to wave the $50 fee. He then said that shipping would take 2 weeks and when I balked, said that he would upgrade the shipping to 3 day. The standard shipping price was over $50 with insurance. My total price on the lens was just under $650. By that time, I would have paid anything.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
I searched their site and found the Sigma ex dg lens for sale elsewhere for $370. The search function on the site does not work correctly, so it was not easy. What a scam... They have their technique down to a science. I doubt that many people actually end up with what they originally ordered.